Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 10.513074 12.321939 14.296877 16.606471 19.226231 22.098273 25.477671
2025-01-26 8.218019 10.813726 13.924691 17.894666 22.789603 28.588829 35.936683
2025-02-02 6.569206 9.550449 13.417019 18.718935 25.708030 34.505542 46.300290
2025-02-09 5.413290 8.591216 13.004553 19.435498 28.394707 40.239636 56.850500
2025-02-16 4.366228 7.525694 12.200828 19.400227 29.936578 44.478961 65.679871
2025-02-23 3.466947 6.474186 11.202782 18.872266 30.618589 47.477061 72.924950
2025-03-02 2.732164 5.521454 10.174287 18.104111 30.778802 49.639777 79.031400
2025-03-09 2.278396 4.948793 9.646869 18.012926 31.892249 53.199488 87.316399
2025-03-16 1.879283 4.388145 9.040983 17.688492 32.557604 56.070224 94.692054
2025-03-23 1.715157 4.248785 9.151935 18.580284 35.254964 62.237600 107.441936
2025-03-30 1.491520 3.938456 8.894253 18.772303 36.763034 66.577361 117.546825
2025-04-06 1.286725 3.623838 8.576933 18.804807 37.972861 70.476838 127.131837
2025-04-13 1.104225 3.328153 8.269147 18.848960 39.260296 74.682165 137.629911
2025-04-20 1.056105 3.351294 8.634491 20.255602 43.158877 83.580818 156.428656
2025-04-27 0.971967 3.263848 8.746737 21.161652 46.192473 91.165884 173.424150
2025-05-04 0.888764 3.159262 8.803445 21.953484 49.061904 98.619393 190.564396
2025-05-11 0.766000 2.911404 8.487878 21.913233 50.298007 103.215110 202.980289
2025-05-18 0.633612 2.596024 7.954952 21.327112 50.383155 105.701786 211.793045
2025-05-25 0.511464 2.272637 7.341443 20.474317 49.832181 106.947693 218.417932
2025-06-01 0.439015 2.092235 7.067879 20.373022 50.826338 111.139800 230.552136
2025-06-08 0.368345 1.893323 6.706720 20.012686 51.225957 114.196114 240.721839
2025-06-15 0.349043 1.885092 6.884880 21.002883 54.641837 123.300431 262.540532
2025-06-22 0.309257 1.780757 6.762969 21.215992 56.337361 129.076250 278.309486